Abstract
I will present the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) that estimate disease burden for 204 countries and territories, and at the first administrative level for a subset of 22 countries. GBD also produce estimates of disease burden attributable to close to 70 risk factors. The main measures of disease burden are deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, DALYs (disability adjusted life years), prevalence and incidence for more 350 diseases and injuries, in 23 age groups and for males and females back to 1990. The main focus of the talk will be to present the ongoing effort to produce forecasts of disease burden and population to 2050 or 2100. I will also present some computational and methodological challenges encountered by the project.