4. Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China.
There has been a broad pattern in the number of plague cases related to globalization and climate change. An analysis of long-term data on a host population and climate data show a density-dependent effect of precipitation and temperature on plague risk.
Xu, L., Wang, Q., Yang, R., Ganbold, D., Tsogbadrakh, N., Dong, K., Liu, M., Altantogtokh, D., Liu, Q., Undrakhbold, S., Boldgiv, B., Liang, W., & Stenseth, N. C. (2023). Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 11906. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38966-1
3. Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.
Using Covid-19 as a model, we show that regardless of global vaccine rollout, public health and social measures are also effective in mitigating epidemic waves and virus lineage diversity.
Yang, L., Wang, Z., Wang, L., Vrancken, B., Wang, R., Wei, Y., Rader, B., Wu, C.-H., Chen, Y., Wu, P., Li, B., Lin, Q., Dong, L., Cui, Y., Shi, M., Brownstein, J. S., Stenseth, N. C., Yang, R., & Tian, H. (2023). Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(33), e2305403120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2305403120
2. Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility
A more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control global pandemics and support economic recovery.
Wang, D., Bjørnstad, O. N., Lei, T., Sun, Y., Huo, J., Hao, Q., Zeng, Z., Zhu, S., Hallegatte, S., Li, R., Guan, D., & Stenseth, N. C. (2023). Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility. Nature Communications, 14(1), 1569. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x
1. How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic
We use international air travel data and an epidemiological model to show that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread of an epidemic than adopting immigration quarantines.
Stenseth, N. C., Schlatte, R., Liu, X., Pielke, R., Jr, Li, R., Chen, B., Bjørnstad, O. N., Kusnezov, D., Gao, G. F., Fraser, C., Whittington, J. D., Bai, Y., Deng, K., Gong, P., Guan, D., Xiao, Y., Xu, B., & Johnsen, E. B. (2023). How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(10), e2220080120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220080120